China halts steel capacity swap projects to tame expansion Report

Insight 10 February 2020

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Report summary

China has suspended all new steelmaking capacity swap projects until the end of April, to review all such projects approved since 2016. The move aims to close loopholes in the original policy that have enabled steelmakers to aggressively expand capacity – often illegally – under the guise of capacity replacement. We estimate over 270 Mtpa of replacement capacity will be subject to review. We believe once the review is completed, it will tame the pace of capacity replacements, leading to much less new capacity than previously announced.

Executive summary
China to review all capacity swap projects
Swap scheme loopholes to be closed
Review measures should result in less capacity

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

China’s total capacity will inch up from 2020 as a result of the capacity swap scheme
More than 270 Mtpa of replacement capacity, – at the operating, construction or planning stage, – is subject to review
Examples of new projects (non-exhaustive)