China’s steel demand growth to slow as property policy tightens
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
What’s inside this report?
China’s property sector consumes just under a third of the country’s total steel demand.
We analyse the impact of tighter property sector policy on crude steel production and iron ore demand. Our report includes a detailed account of how the property sector has responded to each round of policy tightening from 2017 onwards – including changes in new starts, property prices and property market fundamentals.
What key questions does this report answer?
- How will slower demand growth from the property sector affect steel and iron ore over the next few years?
- Property sector steel demand has proved resilient in the face of tighter polices until now. Will it be different this time?
- How have property prices responded to tightening policies?
- What’s driven the sharp increases in house prices over the past 20 years?
China’s top policymakers now see the property sector more as a drag to their proposed economic transition and a risk to the economy.
This report comes with datasets and charts, including this one, which tracks how house prices have responded to policy tightening in China so far. Scroll down to see the full table of contents.
Report summary
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Property steel demand has been resilient despite tighter policies
- because of more property pre-sales
- Property prices have shown even more resilience
- leading to another round of stricter policy tightening
- Why are policymakers so serious this time?
- What impact will this have on steel demand?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Resilience of new starts by floor space resulted in increased steel demand
- Developers have become increasingly reliant on pre-sales
- More property sales as pre-sales
- Housing prices showed even more resilience to the previous policy tightening
- Nearly 40% of new loans are used in the property sector
- Households’ liability has increased sharply, potentially squeezing their consumption
- Property steel demand will slow in 2019/20 and will enter negative growth territory
What's included
This report contains:
