Copper 2021 update to 2040

Copper has a key role to play within energy transition and this has also ignited investor interest in the metal, driving prices to multi-year highs in the first half of 2021. Prices will be supported as the market registers a deficit in 2021 amid a strong rebound in demand growth and a modest supply response. This trend is set to change over the next few years as supply from projects comes to the market. Above average mine supply growth will push the copper market into a period of surplus and from a fundamental perspective we expect prices to come under pressure. Beyond 2025, as the pace of base case mine supply growth slows against a backdrop of still steady demand, prices are expected to trade higher in reaction to anticipated deficits. The rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to reactivate shuttered mines and undertake incremental expansions, mine life extensions and develop brownfield and greenfield projects needed to balance the market.