The world ex-China is struggling to recover after one-third of steel demand disappeared in April. But Chinese steel output is still growing so expect a modest net-gain in global seaborne iron ore imports this year. After peak Chinese steel, global hot metal production will broadly stagnate over the next five years – while seaborne iron ore supply rises. When will the iron ore price nadir come? In the long-term, as global governments open to the idea of a "green" economic recovery, the steelmaking focus will be on EAFs (powered renewably), DRI and eventually hydrogen use in steelmaking. India will continue to expand iron ore consuming BF-BOF capacity. But will India draw iron ore from the seaborne market? And will it be enough to offset declines elsewhere? Watch the short video at this link for the key points. An extended slide deck is available for download. To organise a one-on-one to discuss these themes, please contact us directly.