Fast forecast: steel and iron ore markets in eight minutes

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06 October 2020

Fast forecast: steel and iron ore markets in eight minutes

Report summary

The world ex-China is struggling to recover after one-third of steel demand disappeared in April. But Chinese steel output is still growing so expect a modest net-gain in global seaborne iron ore imports this year. After peak Chinese steel, global hot metal production will broadly stagnate over the next five years – while seaborne iron ore supply rises. When will the iron ore price nadir come? In the long-term, as global governments open to the idea of a "green" economic recovery, the steelmaking focus will be on EAFs (powered renewably), DRI and eventually hydrogen use in steelmaking. India will continue to expand iron ore consuming BF-BOF capacity. But will India draw iron ore from the seaborne market? And will it be enough to offset declines elsewhere? Watch the short video at this link for the key points. An extended slide deck is available for download. To organise a one-on-one to discuss these themes, please contact us directly.

Table of contents

    • The short term story revolves around China
    • Over the medium term, to 2025, global crude steel production can recover, but hot metal production may not
    • Beyond 2025, India becomes the engine of global steel production growth
    • Prices
    • Risks
  • An extended slide deck is available in the downloads section. To organise a one-on-one session to discuss these themes please contact us via the analyst details.

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    Steel and iron ore markets summary - long term outlook - Q3 2020.pdf

    PDF 2.25 MB