Four weeks in: How the aluminium market is responding to the Middle East conflict

The Middle East crisis has entered week four, and the narrative is shifting from supply disruption to structural crisis. Here's what's happening on the ground: Bahrain's ALBA has shut down 19% of operations. Qatar's Qatalum plans to operate at 60% capacity. EGA in the UAE is depleting captive reserves and on-site metal inventory. Alumina inventories are running low and emergency trucking routes are being evaluated. Nearly 1-1.5 Mt of metal production hangs in the balance – with more at risk if the conflict extends. But the more complex questions are just emerging: • Can the rest of the world make up for the lost production? • Why are the alumina prices moving opposite to aluminium prices? • How can the market find relief from supply tightness? Read our detailed report including price scenarios, smelter-level analysis, and supply chain implications.