Insight
China economic focus May 2026: the Middle East war scenarios
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
In the May China economic focus, we analyse how the Chinese economy will be impacted based on the global GDP scenarios from our Horizons: “Strait talking: Iran war scenarios and the future of energy” Quick Peace (base case): the Strait of Hormuz reopens by June, with minimal restrictions, leading to China achieving 4.5% GDP growth in 2026. Summer Settlement: the Strait remains largely closed to traffic until September 2026 and growth in China decelerates to between 3.5% and 4% in 2026. Extended Disruption: the Strait remains closed until the end of 2026 and triggers a deep global recession. China’s 2026 GDP growth drops sharply to 3.0%.
Table of contents
- Scenario 1: Quick Peace (the base case)
- Scenario 2: Summer Settlement
- Scenario 3: Extended Disruption
- Appendix
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Exports of high-tech products surged in the first four monthsWood Mackenzie's proprietary China dataManufacturing PMI
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Industrial production and retail salesTradeInflationPropertyInvestmentMoney supply (M2)Required reserve ratio
What's included
This report contains:
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