Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium investment horizon outlook - Q3 2024
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Wood Mackenzie’s medium-term market balance will be increasingly determined by the interplay between scrap generation, secondary and primary metal. We assume that the share of global secondary metal in total demand will rise over the next 10 years and displace, to some extent, the requirement for additional primary aluminium. This is conditional on the industry ramping up scrap collection, sorting and processing capacity to feed growing secondary demand. Failure to achieve this will result in significantly tighter balances and sustained higher prices.
Table of contents
- Aluminium medium-term outlook
- Alumina medium-term outlook
- Bauxite medium-term outlook
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Aluminium long-term outlook
- Which countries are likely to host new aluminium capacity?
- The price to pay for carbon emissions
- Base case incentive price
- The long-term aluminium price
-
Alumina long-term outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2024
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
-
Aluminium production changes since the last quarter
- Global smelter production and capability 2023-2034
- Asia
- China
- North America
- India
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
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Alumina production changes since the last quarter
- Global refinery production and capacity 2022-2033
- China
- Africa
- Asia ex-China
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- India
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- 1 more item(s)...
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
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Forecasting methodology
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
- 4 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global aluminium balance and pricesPrimary aluminium demand and capacity, 2000-2034, MtpaStock days of consumption and price
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Global supply-demand balanceMiddle East alumina requirement and imports (kt)Stock days and priceSmelter grade alumina balanceAlumina demand and capacity, 2010-2034, MtpaGlobal alumina balance and pricesSeaborne bauxite supply-demand balance and pricesSeaborne bauxite supply - demand, Mt (dry)Kamsar - Yantai, Bauxite Capesize Voyage Rates, US$/t
- 34 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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