Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We project a tight global balance out to 2022 on firm demand expansion and China capacity restraint. Our assessment of global fundamentals continues to point to a tight market in terms of days of consumption. A reduced pace of output in China on the back of pollution controls and restrictions on capacity build will cap output growth. Outside China, we see output additions in the US, Middle East and India. Beyond 2022 China’s supply side reforms will place a limit on capacity additions and shift the focus of future additions to capacity to the world ex-China.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
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Demand
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Overview
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2017
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Forecasts by region
- Asia
- China
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Asia (ex-China)
- Europe
- North America
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Overview
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Supply
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Smelter production and capacity
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Summary
- Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
- Contributions to 13 Mtpa aluminium supply growth, 2017-2021
- Smelter production changes since Q4 2017 and forecasts
- Global smelter production and capacity 2016-2035
- Africa
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North America
- North America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
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Latin America
- Latin America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
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Middle East
- Middle East aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
- Asia
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Summary
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Smelter production and capacity
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Supply-demand balances
- Aluminium market review and outlook
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Long-term alumina prices
- Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, (US$/t)
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035Supply-demand balances: Table 1
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Supply-demand balances: Table 2Supply-demand balances: Table 3Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocksPrimary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2035 ($/t)Supply-demand balances: Table 4Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035Supply-demand balances: Table 6Global SGA balance, 2014-2021, 2025, 2030 and 2035Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2017 vs Q1 2018 (kt)
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What's included
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