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Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

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26 March 2018

Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We project a tight global balance out to 2022 on firm demand expansion and China capacity restraint. Our assessment of global fundamentals continues to point to a tight market in terms of days of consumption. A reduced pace of output in China on the back of pollution controls and restrictions on capacity build will cap output growth. Outside China, we see output additions in the US, Middle East and India. Beyond 2022 China’s supply side reforms will place a limit on capacity additions and shift the focus of future additions to capacity to the world ex-China.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Overview
      • Changes to consumption forecasts since Q4 2017
    • Forecasts by region
      • Asia
      • China
      • Asia (ex-China)
        • Europe
      • North America
    • Smelter production and capacity
      • Summary
        • Global and ROW smelter capacity utilisation, 2007-2025
        • Contributions to 13 Mtpa aluminium supply growth, 2017-2021
      • Smelter production changes since Q4 2017 and forecasts
      • Global smelter production and capacity 2016-2035
      • Africa
      • North America
        • North America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Latin America
        • Latin America aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Middle East
        • Middle East aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
      • Asia
    • Aluminium market review and outlook
    • Long-term alumina prices
      • Short-term contract alumina prices, 1980-2035, (US$/t)

Tables and charts

This report includes 70 images and tables including:

  • Global primary aluminium consumption (Mt)
  • Primary aluminium demand by region, 2010 - 2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 1
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 2
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 3
  • Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
  • Primary aluminium cash prices, 1970-2035 ($/t)
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 4
  • Average one-year contract alumina prices, 1991-2035
  • Supply-demand balances: Table 6
  • Global SGA balance, 2014-2021, 2025, 2030 and 2035
  • Main changes to primary aluminium consumption forecast Q4 2017 vs Q1 2018 (kt)
  • Asia primary aluminium consumption kt
  • Chinese primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on-year % growth)
  • China total demand split by end-use sector
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Distribution of Chinese flat rolled capacity by scale
  • Breakdown of vehicle engine type (passenger and commercial)
  • Urban building completions, million square meters
  • Non-residential building completions, million square meters
  • Actual versus budgeted grid investment, Bn RMB
  • Total aluminium consumption and per capita consumption (Mt and kg per capita)
  • Demand: Table 5
  • North American primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • US aluminium demand per product
  • US demand and supply for automotive sheet
  • Main contributors to Chinese aluminium production increases, 2017-2022 (ktpa)
  • Projected Non-China aluminium production increases, 2016-2021, (kt)
  • Revisions to Q4 2017 forecasts (kt)
  • Global aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Africa aluminium production 2016-2021, 2025 and 2035 (kt)
  • Supply: Table 9
  • Supply: Table 10
  • Supply: Table 11
  • Supply: Table 12
  • Supply: Table 13
  • Supply: Table 14
  • Supply: Table 15
  • Supply: Table 16
  • Supply: Table 17
  • Supply: Table 18
  • Supply: Table 19
  • Supply: Table 20
  • Supply: Table 21
  • Supply: Table 22
  • Supply: Table 23
  • Supply: Table 24
  • Supply: Table 25
  • Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position 2017
  • Provincial Chinese alumina refineries’ weighted average cash cost position Q4 2017
  • Supply: Table 26
  • Supply: Table 27
  • Supply: Table 28
  • Supply: Table 29
  • Supply: Table 30
  • Supply: Table 31
  • Supply: Table 32
  • Supply: Table 33
  • Supply: Table 34
  • Supply: Table 35
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 3
  • European primary aluminium consumption (Mt and year-on year % growth)
  • European consumption and production of automotive sheet
  • US imports from Europe
  • US exports to Europe
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Supply: Table 7
  • Supply: Table 8

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Aluminium Tables Q1 2018.pdf

    PDF 1.18 MB

  • Document

    Production rankings aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 471.50 KB

  • Document

    Demand main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 278.00 KB

  • Document

    Demand analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 855.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply main changes aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 588.50 KB

  • Document

    Smelter analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 1.01 MB

  • Document

    Refinery analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 700.00 KB

  • Document

    Mine analysis aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 386.50 KB

  • Document

    Market balance and prices aluminium LTO Q1 2018.xls

    XLS 253.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

    PDF 960.65 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium long-term outlook Q1 2018

    ZIP 3.25 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 83.92 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 250.88 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 450.82 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 292.85 KB

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