The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2035. We project a tight global balance out to 2022 on firm demand expansion and China capacity restraint. Our assessment of global fundamentals continues to point to a tight market in terms of days of consumption. A reduced pace of output in China on the back of pollution controls and restrictions on capacity build will cap output growth. Outside China, we see output additions in the US, Middle East and India. Beyond 2022 China’s supply side reforms will place a limit on capacity additions and shift the focus of future additions to capacity to the world ex-China.