Commodity Market Report
Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. We maintain our view that the market is set to accumulate a significant surplus out to 2024. China demand growth looks better – following a supply led V-shaped recovery. In contrast, ROW consumption has weakened further during 2020. Smelter supply continues to grow, albeit modestly. High stock accumulation and higher scrap usage means there is little requirement for investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. Future demand growth will be increasingly met by recycled aluminium. Our In-Focus section explores a path to a greener aluminium industry. Much will depend on the willingness producers, consumers and governments to accelerate the use of renewable energy for metal production and increase the use of scrap throughout the aluminium value chain.
Table of contents
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Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
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Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
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Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- A path to greener aluminium
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2020
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Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
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Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Asia
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Europe
- 2 more item(s)...
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Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
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Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
- Forecasting methodology
- Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
- Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
- Risks around the incentive price
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Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
- 1 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Global aluminium balance and pricesPrimary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, MtpaStock days of consumption and price
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Global supply-demand balanceMetal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocksGlobal alumina balance and pricesStock days and priceSmelter grade alumina balanceAlumina demand and capacity (95% utilisation), 2010-2040, MtpaGlobal seaborne bauxite balance and pricesSeaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)Quality-adjusted weighted average fob prices for low temperature bauxite, 2020-2040
- 71 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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