Global aluminium long-term outlook Q3 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 12 September 2020

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Report summary

The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. We maintain our view that the market is set to accumulate a significant surplus out to 2024. China demand growth looks better – following a supply led V-shaped recovery. In contrast, ROW consumption has weakened further during 2020. Smelter supply continues to grow, albeit modestly. High stock accumulation and higher scrap usage means there is little requirement for investment in new smelting capacity over the long-term. Future demand growth will be increasingly met by recycled aluminium. Our In-Focus section explores a path to a greener aluminium industry. Much will depend on the willingness producers, consumers and governments to accelerate the use of renewable energy for metal production and increase the use of scrap throughout the aluminium value chain.

Aluminium market outlook
- Long-run aluminium prices
Alumina market outlook
- Long-run alumina prices
Bauxite market outlook
- Main risks around our base case aluminium market outlook
- Scenario analysis
- A path to greener aluminium
- Summary
- Changes to consumption forecasts since Q2 2020
Forecasts by region
- China
- Asia ex-China
- Europe
- North America
- United States
- Project Classification
- Supply disruptions
- Market-driven adjustment
Smelter production and capacity
- Summary
- Global smelter production and capacity 2019-2040
- Asia
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Europe
- 2 more item(s)...
Refinery production and capacity
- Summary
- Global refinery production and capacity 2019-2040
- Africa
- Asia
- India
- Indonesia
- China
- Europe
Bauxite production
- Africa
- Asia (excl. China)
- China
- Latin America and the Caribbean
- Oceania
Forecasting methodology
Rationale, risks and IRR methodology
Assumptions used to construct incentive prices
Risks around the incentive price
Bauxite pricing
- Global smelter production and capability 2019-2040
- Global refinery production and capability 2019-2040
- Global bauxite production, demand and regional balances 2019-2040
1 more item(s)...

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Global aluminium balance and prices
Primary aluminium demand and capacity, 2010-2040, Mtpa
Stock days of consumption and price

Global supply-demand balance
Metal prices, cash costs and aluminium stocks
Global alumina balance and prices
Stock days and price
Smelter grade alumina balance
Alumina demand and capacity (95% utilisation), 2010-2040, Mtpa
Global seaborne bauxite balance and prices
Seaborne supply and demand, Mt (dry)
Quality-adjusted weighted average fob prices for low temperature bauxite, 2020-2040
71 more item(s)...