Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2022

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME prices have come off highs set at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. At the time of writing the official cash price had fallen by over US$400/t since 24 February, and now trades at levels last seen in early February. However, quotes remain just about above the US$3000/t support level, suggesting resistance may be breached imminently. We think that the market may be moving into oversold territory at levels below US$3000/t. Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria fueled fresh concerns that other European countries could be next on the list. This will lend support to prices on concerns that further cuts to European smelting production could be forthcoming.