Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2022

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29 April 2022

Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2022

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. LME prices have come off highs set at the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. At the time of writing the official cash price had fallen by over US$400/t since 24 February, and now trades at levels last seen in early February. However, quotes remain just about above the US$3000/t support level, suggesting resistance may be breached imminently. We think that the market may be moving into oversold territory at levels below US$3000/t. Russia’s decision to halt gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria fueled fresh concerns that other European countries could be next on the list. This will lend support to prices on concerns that further cuts to European smelting production could be forthcoming.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 23 images and tables including:

  • Manufacturing activity slowing
  • Mixed picture for investment
  • Construction activity slipping in Q1 2022
  • Chinese exports of semis to Europe
  • US shipments of extrusions
  • US shipments of flat rolled products
  • Summary of March production, kt
  • Global output rates (annualised)
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook April 2022

    PDF 1.11 MB