Commodity market report

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. For a short month, February packed in a lot of developments. Despite the China market winding down for the New Year, large single day LME stock increases in Asian warehouses, the emergence of a large cash to 3 month backwardation and tougher than expected recommendations from the Section 232 investigations on aluminium imports by the US Department of Commerce kept the market on edge.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

    PDF 786.49 KB

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO February 2018.xls

    XLS 534.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

    ZIP 968.06 KB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of January production, kt
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:


  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011 - 2020
  • LME inventory by region
  • LME cash price and cash to three month spreads
  • Chinese primary aluminium inventories march higher
  • Global benchmark premia
  • PMIs flat-line ahead of Chinese New Year
  • Japanese semis output
  • Japanese housing starts
  • Domestic shipments of sheet and plate surge
  • Sheet output surges in December
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • US imports of flat rolled products form China
  • European PMI
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2


  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

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