Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

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28 February 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. For a short month, February packed in a lot of developments. Despite the China market winding down for the New Year, large single day LME stock increases in Asian warehouses, the emergence of a large cash to 3 month backwardation and tougher than expected recommendations from the Section 232 investigations on aluminium imports by the US Department of Commerce kept the market on edge.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Supply-demand balances
    • China
    • South Korea
    • Taiwan
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of January production, kt
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • China’s imported bauxite receipts, (Mt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 27 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011 - 2020
  • LME inventory by region
  • LME cash price and cash to three month spreads
  • Chinese primary aluminium inventories march higher
  • Global benchmark premia
  • PMIs flat-line ahead of Chinese New Year
  • Japanese semis output
  • Japanese housing starts
  • Domestic shipments of sheet and plate surge
  • Sheet output surges in December
  • North American shipments of extrusions
  • US imports of flat rolled products form China
  • European PMI
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since January, (kt)
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

    PDF 786.49 KB

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO February 2018.xls

    XLS 534.00 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2018

    ZIP 968.06 KB