Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2021

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26 February 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After steaming through the US$2200/t level in late February, a stronger US dollar moved the LME price lower on the final trading day of the month. The price rally has been built on better economic activity and the prospects of a full vaccine-led recovery in the global economy later in the year. The expected positive impact on aluminium demand from the green narrative has also added to market sentiment, though any benefit will be gradual. Although the micro dynamics of the aluminium market have improved, the steep ascent in the price is not justified by the fundamentals. We expect a large cumulative global market Nevertheless, the limited pull back in the price suggests that buyers are firmly in control.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 26 images and tables including:

  • Total aluminium demand growth by key end-use sectors
  • Economic activity slips in early 2021, but still well within expansion territory
  • Property sales strength will support starts in H1 2021
  • Chinese exports of aluminium semis to the EU
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • Summary of January production, kt
  • Global annualised output rates
  • China’s smelter capacity increases in 2021, ktpa
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • Chinese regional alumina growth in 2020-2021, kt
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Atlantic SGA balance
  • Middle East SGA balance
  • Pacific SGA balance
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2021

    PDF 1.97 MB