Global aluminium short-term outlook February 2021

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. After steaming through the US$2200/t level in late February, a stronger US dollar moved the LME price lower on the final trading day of the month. The price rally has been built on better economic activity and the prospects of a full vaccine-led recovery in the global economy later in the year. The expected positive impact on aluminium demand from the green narrative has also added to market sentiment, though any benefit will be gradual. Although the micro dynamics of the aluminium market have improved, the steep ascent in the price is not justified by the fundamentals. We expect a large cumulative global market Nevertheless, the limited pull back in the price suggests that buyers are firmly in control.