Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2022

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29 July 2022

Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2022

Report summary

Despite an increasingly gloomy outlook for the global economy, there were some signs of stability for the aluminium price amid heightened uncertainty over European gas prices. After dropping from an early June high of just under US$2800/t to US$2320/t in mid-July, the official cash price spent most of the second half of the month just above US$2400/t. For the time being prices will continue to be driven by further negative economic news but will find support from mounting margin pressure and the light metals’ high energy leverage.

Table of contents

  • Supply-demand balances
  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 36 images and tables including:

  • LME cash price and cash-3 month spreads
  • Manufacturing output deteriorates
  • Global supply-demand balance and stocks in days of consumption
  • Investors continue to pull back from the aluminium market
  • LME inventory drawdown continues
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Manufacturing activity improves on easing Covid restrictions
  • Property sector depressed
  • Downturn in private investment in H1 2022
  • Fixed asset investment in railways
  • Shipments showing signs of slowing
  • Chinese exports of semis to the EU
  • Extrusion shipments only slightly positive in June
  • But sheet and plate shipments faring better
  • Summary of June production, kt
  • World ex-China cuts (kt)
  • Global monthly output (annualised)
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Power price by market
  • Atlantic alumina refineries capacity and start-up year
  • Spain alumina exports
  • Spot alumina price
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2021-2024, (kt)
  • China alumina exports, kt
  • World ex-China alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook July 2022

    PDF 1.25 MB