Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2018 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 June 2018

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Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The aluminium market experienced another turbulent month in June. Escalating trade tensions and growing concerns over their impact on near term global economic activity has kept investors on edge. Unsurprisingly, the LME official cash price has traded in a wide range, from a high of $2331/t down to a low of $2151/t. For the time being, the global balance looks tight with still demand growth coupled with a modest upward trajectory in output.

LME cash price and cash to three month spreads
China
Japan
South Korea
- South Korea sheet output and shipments
North America
US
Europe
- Summary of May production, kt
- Changes in aluminium production estimates since May, (kt)
Alumina Market Developments
- Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
- Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
- Changes in global SGA production estimates since May, (kt)