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Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2018

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29 June 2018

Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2018

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The aluminium market experienced another turbulent month in June. Escalating trade tensions and growing concerns over their impact on near term global economic activity has kept investors on edge. Unsurprisingly, the LME official cash price has traded in a wide range, from a high of $2331/t down to a low of $2151/t. For the time being, the global balance looks tight with still demand growth coupled with a modest upward trajectory in output.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • LME cash price and cash to three month spreads
    • China
    • Japan
    • South Korea
      • South Korea sheet output and shipments
    • North America
    • US
    • Europe
    • Summary of May production, kt
    • Changes in aluminium production estimates since May, (kt)
    • Spot alumina prices, (fob US$/t)
    • Rest of World alumina balances, China imports and Spot prices, 2017-2020, (kt)
    • Changes in global SGA production estimates since May, (kt)

Tables and charts

This report includes 31 images and tables including:

  • Aluminium key forecasts
  • Global supply-demand balance, 2011-2021
  • Global economic activity still expanding but at a slower pace
  • Chinese exports of unwrought and aluminium products hit a 40 month high
  • Supply-demand balances: Image 4
  • Russian aluminium exports
  • Global benchmark premia
  • Fixed asset investment on a declining trend
  • China's NBS headline PMI hits a nine month high in May
  • Property market lifted by improved credit conditions
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Japanese semis output change
  • US imports of semis
  • North America shipments of extrusions
  • EU exports of cars
  • Net aluminium content in the EU car production and trade
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Potential output increase from February 2018 base (after Becancour curtailed)
  • Supply: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 4
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Table 5
  • Supply: Table 6
  • Price forecasts and world quarterly supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global alumina production (kt)
  • Global primary aluminium production (kt)
  • Aluminium stock and premia (kt)
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Demand: Image 6

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Data tables aluminium STO June 2018.xls

    XLS 558.50 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2018

    PDF 713.72 KB

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook June 2018

    ZIP 903.37 KB