Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2023

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The official LME cash price drifted below the US$2300/t level in March as financial market stress and a less-than-robust bounce back in Chinese economic activity weighed on market sentiment. Despite increasing inflows of metal into LME warehouses, cash to three-month spreads widened to just above US$50/t on 21 March and remain well above US$40/t at the time of writing. At the same time, risk-averse sentiment is indicated by bearish fund positioning across the base metals complex, with gross longs liquidating their bullish exposure and shorts readily adding to their positioning. For most of the month, prices were trading in a narrow US$2230-2290/t range.

Table of contents

  • China
    • India
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

  • Manufacturing activity returns to expansionary mode
  • Better construction sector activity in early 2023
  • German semis production in contractionary mode
  • US and Canadian extrusion shipments
  • Summary of February production, kt
  • Europe aluminium cuts, kt
  • World ex-China, ktpd
  • Nanshan sold 336 ktpa replacement capacity to Guizhou smelters, ktpa
  • Restarts at Chinese smelters in 2023
  • China monthly aluminium production, kt
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • Spot alumina price
  • 18 more item(s)...

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook March 2023

    PDF 1.73 MB