Commodity Market Report

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2021

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28 May 2021

Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2021

Report summary

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. The official LME cash price reached a three-year high of US$2565/t on 10 May. Since then it has lost more than US$200/t on rumors that the Chinese government could intervene in the markets to limit the escalating prices of raw materials.

Table of contents

  • China
  • Asia ex-China
  • Europe
  • North America
  • Alumina Market Developments

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • PMI's diverge but underlying growth remains positive
  • Infrastructure investment slowing but still elevated
  • Sectoral growth
  • Property market outlook will be determined by the extent of policy tightening
  • Japanese production of semis
  • US shipments of flat-rolled products
  • US imports of flat-rolled products
  • Summary of April production, kt
  • Vedanta aluminium production
  • Allocation of smelters and refineries
  • Global annualised output rates
  • Supply cuts estimation due to hydropower shortage
  • Changes in aluminium production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • China alumina imports (kt)
  • Press Metal alumina demand
  • World ex-China alumina balances, China imports and spot prices, 2020-2023, (kt)
  • Supply increase of Chinese refineries in near term, ktpa
  • World ex-China smelter grade alumina balance
  • China smelter grade alumina balance
  • Changes in global SGA production estimates since the last month, (kt)
  • World ex-China alumina regions
  • Price forecasts and global quarterly aluminium supply/demand balance – (kt)
  • Global aluminium prices and premia
  • Global primary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global secondary aluminium consumption (kt)
  • Global quarterly alumina production (kt) - including non-metallurgical production but excluding adjustments
  • Global quarterly primary aluminium production (kt) - excluding adjustments
  • Alumina supply/demand balance global summary (kt)
  • Aluminium supply/demand balance global summary (kt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global aluminium short-term outlook May 2021

    PDF 1.38 MB