The aluminium metal market service long term outlook (LTO) is published quarterly and provides a detailed forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals out to 2040. The medium-term outlook for the aluminium market has been transformed by the coronavirus pandemic. Massive government stimulus introduced across all major markets meant that the fall in 2020 demand was less than expected while the recovery in 2021 demand has so far been much better than expected. However, there are question marks over the sustainability of demand growth and prices over the next few years. Meanwhile, it’s the same old story with metal supply – there is an increasing likelihood that idled capacity will be reactivated, particularly in China in response to higher prices.