Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2020

The aluminium market service short term outlook (STO) is published monthly and provides a forecast of aluminium supply and demand fundamentals over the next two-years. Our discussions with industry participants around LME Week paint a picture of a market that is in a holding pattern. Against the background of heightened uncertainty over recovery in ROW aluminium demand and the ever changing background of virus containment, there is little conviction in the run-up in prices above the US$1800/t level. Indeed, at the time of writing, the cash price had broken below support at US$1800/t due to rising US infection rates and some European countries announcing a return to national lockdowns. Against this background we continue to forecast a sizable build in the global metal surplus out to 2022.