Global aluminium short-term outlook October 2022

Discussions with industry participants during LME Week point to a bearish outlook for the market over the next 6-12 months. Prospects over a potential ban on Russian metal by the LME and/or the US failed to stir any meaningful upward price response. Nevertheless, the risk of reduced metal flows from Russia together with the likelihood of further power cost-related smelter cutbacks in Europe did push the official cash price from a low of US$2079/t in the final week of September to a high of US$2354/t in the first week of October. Since then the price has continued to drift lower as concerns over the outlook for demand have dominated market sentiment. We note that any upward movement in the price is within the context of what is still a bear market.