Commodity Market Report
Global bulk steel alloys strategic planning outlook - Q1 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Bulk steel alloy prices reached record levels in H2 2021 due to supply tightness and high costs. In China, supply cuts were initially driven by emissions-led output curbs and later power supply constraints. Output returned in Q4 2021 as power constraints were resolved, and prices have softened since. Conversely, international markets remain fraught with supply-side constraints and high energy costs. This, in part, reflects the blowback from the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Our base case across the bulk alloys assumes that these impacts will begin to settle in H2 2022. This will allow international alloy prices to soften. There is abundant capacity to meet demand across the bulk alloys and prices will revert to their long-term, cost-based fundamentals. For manganese alloys and ferrochrome, this will be at a higher plane compared to historical levels – in part, due to a higher ore price forecast.
Table of contents
- Crude steel and stainless steel: China’s crude steel to peak this year
- Moderate growth offered by stainless steel and alloy steels
- Prices in western markets remain supported as China reverts to long-term fundamentals
- China remains crucial to long-term supply, despite a scaledown in capacity
- Silicon metal’s exposure to clean energy technologies means stronger growth than ferrosilicon
- Regulatory intervention and coronavirus outbreak key risks in China, along with Ukraine-Russia crisis in global markets
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Chromium ore
- Chromium ore price forecast
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Ferrochrome
- Ferrochrome price forecast
- Risks to the base case
- Risks to forecast UG2 supply
- Developments in China’s ferrochrome industry
- South African ore export tax
- Stainless steel
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Manganese
- Manganese ore
- Manganese ore price forecast
- Manganese alloy (SiMn and FeMn) market balance
- Manganese alloy price forecast
- Manganese metal market balance
- Key risks to the base case price forecasts
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Silicon
- Ferrosilicon
- Ferrosilicon price forecast
- Silicon metal
- Silicon metal price forecast
- Key risks to ferrosilicon and silicon metal base case price forecasts
- Crude steel trends
- Stainless steel trends
- 6 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Chromium ore supply-demand balance outlookBase case outlook for ferrochrome supplyFerrochrome supply-demand balance outlook
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Ferrochrome supply-demand balance outlook with regional supply breakdownFerrosilicon and silicon metal consumptionForecast crude steel productionForecast crude stainless steel productionOutlook for global average manganese intensity of crude steelManganese alloy and metal consumption outlookManganese consumption by first useSummary of manganese demand outlook by first use (kt Mn contained)Chromium ore price outlook
- 52 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
