Global cathode and precursor short-term outlook November 2023

November brings a slower end to the year than initially expected. Plug-in EV sales showed little growth month-on-month. Although sentiment in China's market is improving, the rest of the world is not so upbeat. We do not expect any significant upswing in vehicle sales and, therefore, cathode demand before year-end. Supply chains continue focusing on destocking. The trend has pushed raw material prices down across the board all year, impacting cathode and precursor pricing, which on average, are 6% lower this month. Supply is still expected to outpace demand in the short-term. NCM and LFP continue to dominate the added capacity, so the picture here is even worse: We forecast a 15% average downturn for Q4 2025 vs. today's price. Cathode producers are already operating at 50% to 80% utilisation as margins narrow, and we expect this to continue. The full report in PDF form and underlying data can be downloaded from the 'Report Downloads Section’. Note: Trade data is absent this month.