Global cobalt short-term outlook June 2024

Cobalt fundamentals saw little change in June with some increases to both supply and demand doing little to change the persistent trend of market oversupply that will limit upward price movement throughout 2024. We still expect some recovery late in the year or into early 2025 as feedstock levels at refineries fall and demand picks up from the EV and portable battery markets, combined with increasing government stockpiling. Right now, however, our EV demand forecast continues to be scaled back on bearish market sentiment, although this was offset in June by a strong rise in NMC cathode consumption. The cobalt price may fluctuate from US$13-15/lb during the period of 2025-2028. Significant supply cuts will be required for prices to show real recovery.