Commodity Market Report
Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Enthusiasm for copper, particularly from macro funds, has seen the price run ahead of its fundamentals on the back of the strong recovery in Chinese demand, and expectations of a green, copper intensive recovery. Although we now anticipate a deficit for 2021, we still expect a period of declining prices on higher mine supply between 2022 and 2024. From 2025, against a backdrop of still steady demand, and as the pace of base case mine supply growth slows, the resultant deficits are expected to lift prices higher. The rise in prices should provide sufficient confidence to encourage producers to reactivate shuttered mines and undertake incremental expansions, mine life extensions and develop brownfield and greenfield projects needed to balance the market.
Table of contents
- Long Term Prices
- Main risks around our base case copper market outlook
- Scenario analysis
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Can mine supply rise to the challenge from energy transition’s emerging demand for copper
- Copper’s role in energy transition
- Can primary supply grow fast enough?
- Closing the theoretical shortfall / supply gap
- Supply gap definition and methodology:
- Overview
- Changes since the last quarter
- China
- Europe
- North America
- Latin America
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- ASEAN and India
- 7 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Price scenariosRegional refined copper consumption 2000-2040Total copper consumption by property 2000-2040
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Changes in refined copper consumption by regionRegional refined copper consumption - ktChina's power generation and total grid investment ( % change year-on-year)Total copper consumption increments to 2040 (kt)China copper consumption breakdownEuropean manufacturing activity showcased strengthMexican share of regional refined consumption to riseRefined copper consumption forecast regional breakdown 2020-40Indexed Copper Consumption Growth - 2010-2040
- 35 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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