Commodity Market Report
Global copper long-term outlook Q3 2019
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Why buy this report on the long-term outlook for copper?
- You'll get in-depth analysis of the global copper market, including the factors that are likely to have the greatest influence on supply, demand and price, out to 2040
- Get analysis on the latest issues affecting the market from our global team of experts
- Get access to the analysts who produced this report to understand what the analysis could mean for your business.
What key questions does this report answer about the outlook for copper?
- How has the ongoing trade war between the US and China affected copper prices?
- What’s the impact of the newly introduced scrap policy on the global flow and consumption of scrap copper?
- How could future end-use consumption trends influence our current expectations?
Scroll down for a full table of contents, as well as the charts and data sets you'll receive.
Report summary
As the trade war continues to play out, copper prices have remained volatile throughout 2019. Three-month copper prices have now lost 12% of their value since trading to a US$6808/t peak in mid-April. The consistent tit-for-tat behaviour between China and the USA has undermined both consumer and market sentiment. A downgraded global demand outlook now points to a finely balanced copper market for 2019. Despite a return to positive mine supply growth in 2020, production will be more than offset by additions to demand as new semis capacity continues to ramp up. From a fundamental perspective, this should be positive for prices. Above average mine supply growth between 2021 and 2023, as output from the 2.7 Mt of new projects hits the market, will overwhelm estimated demand gains. It will only be once stocks start to decline and deficits emerge from 2024 that we expect prices to begin to trend higher to reach our forecast long-term incentive price by 2029.
Table of contents
- Changes to the market outlook since Q2 2019
- Overview
- US-China trade war
- China
- North America
- Latin America
- Europe
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- ASEAN and India
- Russia & the Caspian
- Rest of world
-
Trends in consumption of secondary copper
- Scrap definition
- Scrapping rates
- Scrap usage
- Scrap consumption
- Scrap outlook
- 7 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Monthly total exchange stocks and prices
- Global metal balances & LME copper price (2019$)
- LME copper prices
- Manufacturing PMI has fallen in most major copper consuming regions so far in 2019
- Regional refined copper consumption, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
- Total copper consumption by property, 2000 - 2040 kt Cu
- Regional refined copper consumption - kt
- Chinese exports of goods under HS code 84, 85 and 87
- Exports of goods under HS code 84, 85 and 87 by major economies
- The different stages of Chinese total copper consumption
- China copper consumption breakdown
- China end-use copper demand (excl semis trade), 2010-2040 (kt)
- 53 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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