Global copper short-term outlook April 2021

The risk-off tone that set in across the markets in March continued into the first half of April. Three-month copper prices remained fairly erratic, trading within a US$400/t range through to the 13 April. Then, much like in February, prices rallied from the middle of the month, initially on the back of short covering. The latest data from the LME, SHFE and the Commitments of Traders suggest that new longs have since come into the market, driving copper back up to new highs. Indeed, three-month copper briefly breached the US$10,000/t level on 29 April before retracing to close lower at US$9885/t by the end of that session. Prices have risen on the back of a combination of renewed speculative interest, declining LME stocks, a weaker dollar and lower production numbers that suggest some Covid-related supply problems continue.