Global copper short-term outlook September 2019

Disappointing macroeconomic data dictated much of copper’s fate in September. The combined strain of a global economic slowdown and ongoing trade war continue to weigh on copper demand. In particular, developed economies including the US, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and some major copper consuming countries in Europe have underperformed this year as a result. This has led to a downgrade of our global refined copper consumption growth forecast for 2019 from 1.0% previously to 0.2%. As prices continue to trend lower, there are growing concerns that producers' cash margins are being squeezed. Although further suspensions arising from copper price levels are not likely to feature substantially in the near term, it is clear that the pace at which projects are being advanced is slowing significantly.