Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore long-term outlook Q1 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Iron ore fared better than most industrial metals in the immediate aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak. But there is no escaping the devastating impact the pandemic will have on global steel markets and the inevitable flow through to iron ore. Our working assumption (based on a highly volatile situation) is for a more pronounced down-cycle for iron ore (than our pre-virus forecast), reaching its nadir in 2023. Read our latest global iron ore long term outlook for details on our base case view and key risks impacting seaborne iron ore supply, demand and price.
Table of contents
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What’s changed since Q4-19?
- Price forecast:
- Key demand revisions:
- Key supply revisions:
- Overview
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Asia
- China
- Moderate crude steel production drop in 2020
- Smaller drop in hot metal production and thus iron ore demand
- Iron ore demand from 2020 onward
- India
- Japan
- South Korea
- Taiwan
- Indonesia and Vietnam
- Other Asia
- Europe
- EU and the UK
- Turkey
- 20 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key demand forecast dataJapan is responsible for 5% of global iron ore consumptionand imports 10% of global fines supply
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Indonesia: We expect the relatively rapid increase in iron ore consumption seen over the last five years to continue in the long-termVietnam: The rapid expansion in iron ore consumption seen over the past two years will begin to cool from the mid-2020sEurope: key demand forecast dataEU28 is responsible for 8% of seaborne iron ore importsbut imports 32% of global pellet importsTurkish blast furnace iron ore consumption has the potential to grow in the medium term as new hot metal producing assets are commissionedTurkish domestic iron ore supply currently satisfies around one-third of domestic demand but as demand rises that share will fall to around one-quarterKey demand forecast dataNorth America: key demand forecast data
- 37 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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