Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore strategic planning outlook – Q1 2024
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Given that the steel demand outlook in China is still closely tied to the uncertainty surrounding the property sector's health and considering the anticipated stable performance from the major seaborne suppliers, we anticipate a slight loosening of the market balance in 2024 compared to the last few years. Our view is that the price for 62% Fe fines CFR China is poised to average around US$110/t in 2024 and US$100/t in 2025. There is no change to our view that prices will trend lower over the next five years in anticipation of easing supply constraints and moderation in Chinese demand. We maintain our long-term price at US$75/t (real 2024 terms). This report presents our current assessment of iron ore market dynamics and long term price outlook.
Table of contents
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What’s changed since Q4 2023?
- Overview
- Demand view
- Supply view
- Price view
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The five-year view - what’s changed?
- Seaborne Trade
- Price Forecast
- Simplified market balance and cost support
- Price versus costs
- Premiums and discounts
- Price outlook for lump
- Price outlook for pellets
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The long term outlook
- Forecasting rationale
- Long term price forecast maintained at US$75/t CFR
- Key swing factors that could impact the long-term view:
- Overview
- Asia
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China
- Chinese crude steel production to edge down by 1% in 2024
- EAF adoption is slow in the short term but prospects are promising in the long term
- H-DRI will ramp up in the long term, but BF-BOF will remain dominant
- Iron ore imports and domestic supply to decline; import dependency will rise
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India
- Crude steel production to grow by 7% in 2024, fuelling iron ore demand
- India has around 67 Mt of capacity addition planned by 2030
- BOF share in steelmaking to rise despite decarbonisation efforts in the long term
- 24 more item(s)...
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Tier 3 and Chinese domestic supply requirementViU adjusted 2030 Cost curvePrice and cash cost, by percentile contestable market, CFR China)
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Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (US$/t and %)Iron ore lump premiumBlast furnace pellet premiumOverview of global steel and iron ore marketChina key demand dataJKT demand dynamicsKorean iron ore demand to overtake Japans'S.E.Asia Iron ore consumptionIndonesia to gain share in S.E.Asia
- 33 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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