Commodity Market Report
Global iron ore strategic planning outlook – Q1 2024
Report summary
Given that the steel demand outlook in China is still closely tied to the uncertainty surrounding the property sector's health and considering the anticipated stable performance from the major seaborne suppliers, we anticipate a slight loosening of the market balance in 2024 compared to the last few years. Our view is that the price for 62% Fe fines CFR China is poised to average around US$110/t in 2024 and US$100/t in 2025. There is no change to our view that prices will trend lower over the next five years in anticipation of easing supply constraints and moderation in Chinese demand. We maintain our long-term price at US$75/t (real 2024 terms). This report presents our current assessment of iron ore market dynamics and long term price outlook.
Table of contents
-
What’s changed since Q4 2023?
- Overview
- Demand view
- Supply view
- Price view
-
The five-year view - what’s changed?
- Seaborne Trade
- Price Forecast
- Simplified market balance and cost support
- Price versus costs
- Premiums and discounts
- Price outlook for lump
- Price outlook for pellets
-
The long term outlook
- Forecasting rationale
- Long term price forecast maintained at US$75/t CFR
- Key swing factors that could impact the long-term view:
- Overview
- Asia
-
China
- Chinese crude steel production to edge down by 1% in 2024
- EAF adoption is slow in the short term but prospects are promising in the long term
- H-DRI will ramp up in the long term, but BF-BOF will remain dominant
- Iron ore imports and domestic supply to decline; import dependency will rise
-
India
- Crude steel production to grow by 7% in 2024, fuelling iron ore demand
- India has around 67 Mt of capacity addition planned by 2030
- BOF share in steelmaking to rise despite decarbonisation efforts in the long term
- Japan
-
South Korea
- Impact of decarbonisation in Japan and South Korea
- Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- Other Asia
- Europe
- EU and the UK
- Turkey
- CIS
- Russia
- Ukraine
- North America
- United States
- Mexico
- Canada
- South America
- Brazil
- Other South American countries
- Middle East and North Africa
- Iran
- Saudi Arabia and UAE
- Africa
-
Overview
- Key changes to the seaborne supply forecast this quarter:
- Key trends by product type
- Sinter fines
- Pellet feed
- Lump
- Pellet
-
Regional analysis: key changes to the forecast
- Brazil
- Chile
- Peru
- Canada
- United States
- Liberia
- Mauritania
- Sierra Leone
- Gabon
- Guinea
- South Africa
- Europe
- Russia
- Ukraine
- Kazakhstan
- China
- India
- Asia (excluding China and India)
- Iran
Tables and charts
This report includes 45 images and tables including:
- Tier 3 and Chinese domestic supply requirement
- ViU adjusted 2030 Cost curve
- Price and cash cost, by percentile contestable market, CFR China)
- Premium and discount for high/low grade iron ore (US$/t and %)
- Iron ore lump premium
- Blast furnace pellet premium
- Overview of global steel and iron ore market
- China key demand data
- JKT demand dynamics
- Korean iron ore demand to overtake Japans'
- S.E.Asia Iron ore consumption
- Indonesia to gain share in S.E.Asia
- Europe: key demand forecast data
- EU + UK share of iron ore consumption (2023)
- EU + UK share of global iron ore trade (2023)
- Turkey blast furnace consumption mix
- Turkey Iron ore demand-supply dynamics
- Key demand forecast data
- North America: key demand forecast data
- Canada iron ore consumption mix
- Canada iron ore supply dynamics
- South America steel and iron ore market forecasts
- South America iron ore consumption by country
- Venezuela iron ore consumption
- Middle East and North Africa: key demand forecast data
- Iron ore consumption in MENA (Mt)
- MENA iron ore consumption by country
- Iran iron ore consumption (Mt)
- Saudi Arabia and UAE DRI production (Mt)
- Iron ore price forecasts (nominal)
- Price forecast revision
- Iron ore price forecast (a long-term perspective)
- China hot metal and iron ore dynamics
- China BOF and EAF production
- China long term iron ore supply dynamics
- Asia (ex-China): key demand forecast data
- India crude steel production (Mt)
- India metallics mix (Mt)
- India iron ore consumption mix (Mt)
- Iron ore production and exports by major country
- Iron ore exports by key company
- China domestic iron ore mining output
- Contestable Private production at different price levels (Wet tonnes)
- Pellet capacity additions (Mt)
- Indian iron ore production and trade (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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