Global lead long-term outlook Q1 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 31 March 2020

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Report summary

The coronavirus pandemic dominates short-term supply and demand changes but also impacts the medium term for lead markets. We have revised our mine output down by 8.2% for this year with the temporary idling of many mines across the world. But the greater proportion of supply coming from secondary sources - which are less affected by the crisis - means demand is relatively even more curtailed. We have reduced global consumption by 670 kt for this year, which contributes to a forecast 690 kt surplus in 2020. However, much of this is demand deferral, rather than destruction, leading to a rebound of +7.4% year-on-year growth in 2021. Medium- and long-term growth prospects still look healthy at 1.4% pa and 1.8% pa respectively.

Demand outlook
Supply outlook
Market balance and price outlook
Changes since Q4 2019
- Market and demand changes
- Supply-side changes
Beyond coronavirus: supply chain diversification in the long run
Overview
Asia
- China
- India
- Japan
Europe
North America
- US
- Mexico
Latin America
Other regions
Regional mine production capability
- Africa
- Asia
- Asian lead mine capability
- Europe
- Latin America
- Middle East
- North America
- Oceania
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