Global lead long-term outlook Q2 2019 Report

Commodity Market Report 24 June 2019

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What’s changed since our last report?

Further weakness in key market sectors have forced us to cut forecast consumption compared with our Q1 data.

The recovery in concentrate output will increase supply in the medium term, pushing the refined market into significant surpluses as demand growth falters. This will negatively impact the refined lead price.

We have adjusted downwards our medium- and long-term price forecasts.

Why buy this report?

Get answers to your questions on lead market dynamics, including:

Which country will overtake China as a leader in lead demand
Why concentrate stock levels won't react as quickly to the large refined surpluses
Which sectors and countries are underperforming
Is existing smelting capacity sufficient to treat additional primary supply?

You'll get access to our complete data set, with tables and charts such as this one, tracking both historical and forecast supply and demand trends for lead.

Report summary

Our previous forecast of weakening prices through to 2024 has become even more justifiable. We have cut a net 1.4Mt from global lead consumption for the period 2018 to 2023 compared to our Q1 forecast, with much of this concentrated in Asia. Global refined supply is still forecast to increase over the same period, with this underpinned by a recovery in concentrate supply to in excess of its 2014 peak. Concentrate market tightness should actually persist through 2019-2020 before a surplus emerges, but a refined lead surplus will still establish itself with a vengeance from 2020. Refined stocks in days of consumption will rise more rapidly than we outlined three months ago. We therefore forecast prices falling more decisively, and have also lowered our long-term price to reflect a weaker long-term outlook for consumption.