Commodity Market Report
Global lead short-term outlook December 2022
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Metal and concentrate pricing are ending 2022 at strong levels. Short-term macroeconomic prospects are certainly not entirely sanguine and without obvious downside risks, but recent developments - the roll-back of Covid restrictions in China and hopes that interest rates can turn following an easing of US inflation - are supportive of lead consumption growth accelerating in 2023. Mine production should also pick up in 2023, led by the start-up of the Abra project, and, so long as smelting does not emerge as a bottleneck. metal supply growth should match that of consumption. This should leave metal and concentrate stocks at the end of 2023 little changed, with notable surpluses only set to begin emerging in 2024.
Table of contents
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Supply-demand balances
- Changes to forecast
- Europe
- China
- Concentrate market
- Project development
- Corporate Activity
- Smelter news
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Lead outperforms most of the other LME metalsShort covering helps lift priceSeasonal Shanghai stock build getting underway
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Refined lead premia and scrap pricesPrice forecasts and global quarterly supply/demand balances (kt)Quarterly consumptionConcentrate availability has been sufficiently tight for spot TCs to edge lower despite the arbitrage remaining negative in DecemberConcentrate market TCsAcid's price has failed to maintain a recovery and it therefore remains well below where it started the year (as well as its peak)Up 6-7% for the year, imports have generally been softer recently despite a strong outcome in NovemberLead mine capability, market adjustment and production (kt Pb)Global refined lead consumption (kt Pb)
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What's included
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