Global lead short-term outlook November 2022

Continued low spot TCs suggest that smelter capacity has not yet become a bottleneck for supply in the refined market, with lead prices instead being driven higher in November along with other metals on the back of macro-economic developments. While rising infections at operations have recently led to automakers in China to cut production, there are now renewed hopes of a less disruptive zero-Covid policy in the country. This will help global consumption growth to accelerate to 3.4% in 2023, up from just 1.2% this year. This should be met by supply, which will in part be boosted by mine production which will grow once more after a flat performance in 2022. Smelter capacity is sufficient to process the extra concentrate but it will need to restore utilisation rates after this year's dip.