Global lead short-term outlook October 2021

October was a much better month for lead's price performance, gaining 13.6% of value, briefly hitting a two-month peak before retreating slightly to finish on $2449/t. Strong fundamentals, mostly surrounding refined metal availability, continued to drive the price higher when other base metal prices sagged later in the month. Lead resisted downward pulls from disappointing economic data and a stronger dollar, as total exchanged stocks fell with SHFE's tonnage dropping 16% with power rationing curtailing output. Chinese imports are lower for lead concentrates but higher for silver concentrates, which still contain a significant amount of lead. Spot TCs have stabilised, which isn't an easing of market fundamentals, considering the substantial negative SHFE/LME arbitrage.