Global rare earths strategic planning outlook Q1 2024 Report

Commodity Market Report 28 March 2024

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Report summary

The global energy transition will require the decarbonisation of key sectors such as transport and greater levels of renewable energy generation. Key technologies such as electric vehicles and offshore wind energy generation are poised to play a vital role in this global challenge. This will fuel an increasing demand for rare earth elements used in permanent magnets. Wood Mackenzie believes the neodymium market will remain in a constant state of relative tightness, fluctuating between short periods of surplus and deficit. Forecast prices for rare earths show diverging trends depending on their exposure to the permanent magnet industry. Key magnet elements have the strongest support from rapid and persistent demand growth from electric vehicles in particular. Non-magnet-related elements will remain subdued with a building oversupply and weak demand growth.

Market outlook and prices
- Diverging outlook for other magnet rare earths
- Outlook for key rare earth prices
- What does the H1 2024 quota announcement mean for the industry?
Demand
- Permanent magnet applications will drive rare earth demand
- Demand from automotive applications key to future magnet demand growth
- Wind energy generation set to play a key role in magnet demand in the period to 2035
- Rare earth demand in catalysts set to be eroded by the energy transition
- Changes to demand since Q4 2023
Supply
- Mine supply diversification to continue
- Monazite mineral sands to become increasingly important source of rare earths
- Refined supply to remain China-centred
- Recycled supply to grow in importance