Commodity Market Report
Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2020
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
The ongoing coronavirus pandemic continues to be the dominant influence on the zinc market, with the mine supply disruptions caused mitigated by elevated concentrate stocks at the beginning of the crisis. As a consequence, surpluses in the refined market are forecast to result in a sharp rise in zinc stocks. However, prices have held up and we expect them to remain at elevated levels despite rising refined stocks. The Global Zinc Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040, including; • Revisions to our global zinc consumption forecasts • The likely trajectory of the recovery in demand • New price forecasts and price scenarios • Mine supply developments over the forecast period • The implications of revisions on our market balance and price forecasts out to 2040
Table of contents
- Medium-term forecasts
- Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
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Risks to forecast
- Short term - upside
- Short term - downside
- Long term - upside
- Long term - downside
- Risks to the forecast dramatic surge in new mine production
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Overview
- China
- India
- USA
- Europe
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Changes to froecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- China
- Oceania
- Smelter supply changes since Q2 2020
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Price forecasts and refined market balances tableThe zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium termConcentrate market balances table
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Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocksRequirement for new mine productionCost price relationships are used to forecast long-term pricesLong term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by AsiaGlobal zinc consumption is dominated by ChinaPer capita zinc consumption growth will be modestStructural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of useCyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumptionWorld mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
- 19 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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