Global zinc long-term outlook Q3 2020 Report

Commodity Market Report 28 September 2020

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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below

Report summary

The ongoing coronavirus pandemic continues to be the dominant influence on the zinc market, with the mine supply disruptions caused mitigated by elevated concentrate stocks at the beginning of the crisis. As a consequence, surpluses in the refined market are forecast to result in a sharp rise in zinc stocks. However, prices have held up and we expect them to remain at elevated levels despite rising refined stocks. The Global Zinc Long-term Outlook provides the latest update of detailed supply and demand analysis and price forecasts for the zinc market out to 2040, including; • Revisions to our global zinc consumption forecasts • The likely trajectory of the recovery in demand • New price forecasts and price scenarios • Mine supply developments over the forecast period • The implications of revisions on our market balance and price forecasts out to 2040

Medium-term forecasts
Long term forecasts, base case and high-low thresholds
Risks to forecast
- Short term - upside
- Short term - downside
- Long term - upside
- Long term - downside
- Risks to the forecast dramatic surge in new mine production
Overview
- China
- India
- USA
- Europe
Changes to froecast zinc consumption since previous quarter
- China
- Oceania
- Smelter supply changes since Q2 2020

Tables and charts

This report includes the following images and tables:

Price forecasts and refined market balances table
The zinc market is facing substantial surpluses in the concentrate and metal markets for the medium term
Concentrate market balances table

Investor sentiment is expected to support the zinc price despite rising metal stocks
Requirement for new mine production
Cost price relationships are used to forecast long-term prices
Long term growth in zinc consumption will be driven by Asia
Global zinc consumption is dominated by China
Per capita zinc consumption growth will be modest
Structural shifts in zinc's first uses have resulted in a sharp decline in intensity of use
Cyclical downturns have a significant impact on global zinc consumption
World mine capability forecasts by region and global market adjustment
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