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How high can iron ore prices rise following Vale's dam failure?
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
We estimate the price for 62% Fe fines (CFR China) can be sustained at US$85/tonne if Vale's production falls by 50 million tonnes this year. But there remains a lot of uncertainty about how much production Vale will lose and how long the outages will last. If Vale loses less than 45Mt of output, prices are unlikely to be sustained above US$80/tonne. But if there are further mine suspensions (both within Vale's systems and at other Brazilian producers with upstream tailings dams) and production losses reach 75 million tonnes, then prices could be sustained above US$100/tonne.
Table of contents
- Executive summary
- Potential production losses
- Cost curve implies prices can be sustained at US$85/tonne with 50Mt of lost production
- Price sensitivity analysis
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Potential price impact from Vale dam failure
- Price sensitivity to production losses
What's included
This report contains:
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