Iron ore energy transition outlook 2026

Green steel has moved down the agenda as energy security, cost pressures, and geopolitics reshape priorities, slowing the pace of the transition. Uncertainty around hydrogen supply, carbon policy alignment, and infrastructure readiness continues to delay large-scale investment in low‑carbon steelmaking. Nevertheless, emissions reductions are expected to accelerate through a combination of incremental improvements in existing technologies, lower hot metal production, greater scrap availability and use, and increased DRI production, driving a structural shift in iron ore demand. As a result, total iron ore demand declines materially below our base case by 2050, as scrap increasingly displaces hot metal production. However, the transition also lifts demand for DRI, creating a significant opportunity for suppliers of premium-grade iron ores.