Insight
Iron ore: how low can it go?
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Report summary
Having demonstrated remarkable resilience for the past two months, the price of iron ore has taken a big hit in the past two days. We think this is the start of a trend, not a blip. Our working assumption is for prices to gravitate towards the 90th percentile of the (normalised) contestable cost curve, which we estimate at just below $70/t. A protracted global recession would drive prices to the 75th percentile, currently around $50/t.
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