Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets - short-term outlook - April 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Another month, another record price for iron ore! The benchmark 62% fines index broke through $193/t on April 27th, a few cents higher than the previous all time high recorded in February 2011. Back then the 90th percentile of the cost curve was well above $100/t, today it’s more like $60/t: this is a bonanza for the iron ore industry on a scale we’ve never seen! The market for high grade iron ore and direct charge feed is particularly hot as steel mills focus on maximising productivity in response to high steel prices and margins. Read our monthly update for the latest analysis on short term supply/demand dynamics and price outlook.
Table of contents
- Benchmark index hits a new all time high
- Technical indicators – resistance broken as booming steel prices and margins drive iron ore to new highs
- China – still booming!
- Imports are powering ahead
- Demand recovery underway in the world ex-China
- India - a strong start but risks are rising
- Brazilian supply – all eyes on Vale’s road to recovery
- Australian supply – a strong start to 2021, but can it last?
- Chinese domestic ore production remains high
- Indian supply – on the rise!
- Inventories – Chinese p ort stocks are trending higher
- Freight – short-term sentiment for capes remains strong
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key quarterly forecastIron ore price: monthly averageSteel margins and iron ore spread
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62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels62% vs 65% forward curvesChinese import of iron oreContribution to Q1 change in Chinese importsJ/K/T: monthly pig iron productionEU27 + UK: monthly pig iron productionIndian iron ore exportsSeaborne exports of iron ore from AustraliaSeaborne exports of iron ore from Brazil
- 7 more item(s)...
What's included
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