Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Prices stabilised in October with the benchmark 62% index averaging $122/t, marginally above September's $120/t. But we believe this impasse will be short lived and forecast a downside break towards $100/t during Nov/Dec. The usual seasonal slowdown in seaborne supply will provide some support over the coming months, but not enough to overcome persistent Chinese steel production restrictions and a flagging recovery ex-China. All this points to downward pressure on prices through to year-end.
Table of contents
- Chinese steel cuts hit iron ore price
-
$100/t by year-end?
- Downside pressure on iron ore fines prices
- Lump and pellet - on the rise
-
A weak end to 2021 in prospect
- China - steel production cuts gather momentum
- What to expect from China in Q4?
- Chinese imports of iron ore - the peak has passed!
- India - impressive production; shrinking exports
- Surge in mine lease auction premiums in Odisha
-
Seaborne supply - the slow road to recovery
- Q4 outlook for Brazilian supply
- Q4 outlook for Australian supply
-
Inventories
- Under more favourable price and ample supply, we are likely to see a further build-up of iron ore port inventories in Q4
-
Freight
- N ormalisation expected following pronounced upward surge in the Capesize market
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
- Key forecast data
- Iron ore prices
- Raw material prices and hot metal spread
- Key quarterly forecast
- 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
- 62% and 65% Fe Forward Curves
- Pellet premium
- Lump premium
- Chinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)
- Daily production of CISA member companies
- 17 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Asset Report
Lebedinsky GOK iron ore mine
HBI production at Lebedinsky GOK's HBI-3 has exceeded full capacity, producing 4.6 Mt in both the last three years.
$2,250
Insight
CMRG's role in the iron ore market
Examining the stabilisation efforts and market impact
$1,050
Insight
Tokyo Metals and Mining Briefing 2025
Ferrous market outlook, energy transition, and trade dynamics—key insights from Wood Mackenzie’s Metals and Mining Tokyo briefing.
$1,050
