Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021

Get this report


You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.

- FAQs about online orders
- Find out more about subscriptions

29 October 2021

Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021

Report summary

Prices stabilised in October with the benchmark 62% index averaging $122/t, marginally above September's $120/t. But we believe this impasse will be short lived and forecast a downside break towards $100/t during Nov/Dec. The usual seasonal slowdown in seaborne supply will provide some support over the coming months, but not enough to overcome persistent Chinese steel production restrictions and a flagging recovery ex-China. All this points to downward pressure on prices through to year-end.

Table of contents

  • Chinese steel cuts hit iron ore price
    • Downside pressure on iron ore fines prices
    • Lump and pellet - on the rise
    • China - steel production cuts gather momentum
    • What to expect from China in Q4?
    • Chinese imports of iron ore - the peak has passed!
    • India - impressive production; shrinking exports
    • Surge in mine lease auction premiums in Odisha
    • Q4 outlook for Brazilian supply
    • Q4 outlook for Australian supply
    • Under more favourable price and ample supply, we are likely to see a further build-up of iron ore port inventories in Q4
    • N ormalisation expected following pronounced upward surge in the Capesize market

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • Key forecast data
  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • 62% and 65% Fe Forward Curves
  • Pellet premium
  • Lump premium
  • Chinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)
  • Daily production of CISA member companies
  • Chinese iron ore imports
  • Chinese imports (by source)
  • Indian iron ore production
  • Indian iron ore exports
  • Brazilian iron ore exports
  • Brazilian iron ore exports to China
  • Australian iron ore exports
  • Australian iron ore exports: majors only
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Chinese total steel inventories
  • Capesize freight rates to China
  • Brazilian iron ore exports vs rainfall
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021

    PDF 1.02 MB