Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021
This report is currently unavailable
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Prices stabilised in October with the benchmark 62% index averaging $122/t, marginally above September's $120/t. But we believe this impasse will be short lived and forecast a downside break towards $100/t during Nov/Dec. The usual seasonal slowdown in seaborne supply will provide some support over the coming months, but not enough to overcome persistent Chinese steel production restrictions and a flagging recovery ex-China. All this points to downward pressure on prices through to year-end.
Table of contents
- Chinese steel cuts hit iron ore price
-
$100/t by year-end?
- Downside pressure on iron ore fines prices
- Lump and pellet - on the rise
-
A weak end to 2021 in prospect
- China - steel production cuts gather momentum
- What to expect from China in Q4?
- Chinese imports of iron ore - the peak has passed!
- India - impressive production; shrinking exports
- Surge in mine lease auction premiums in Odisha
-
Seaborne supply - the slow road to recovery
- Q4 outlook for Brazilian supply
- Q4 outlook for Australian supply
-
Inventories
- Under more favourable price and ample supply, we are likely to see a further build-up of iron ore port inventories in Q4
-
Freight
- N ormalisation expected following pronounced upward surge in the Capesize market
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
-
Key forecast dataIron ore pricesRaw material prices and hot metal spread
-
Key quarterly forecast62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels62% and 65% Fe Forward CurvesPellet premiumLump premiumChinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)Daily production of CISA member companies
- 17 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Insight
Fibres sustainability feed
Wood Mackenzie’s fibres sustainability outlook – a live feed of our latest research
$900
Insight
Perspectives - Metals and Mining - December 2025
A cross-commodity outlook
$1,050
Insight
LNG short-term webinar: November 2025
Monthly webinar covering topical LNG market themes
$1,050
