Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021 Report

Commodity Market Report 29 October 2021

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Report summary

Prices stabilised in October with the benchmark 62% index averaging $122/t, marginally above September's $120/t. But we believe this impasse will be short lived and forecast a downside break towards $100/t during Nov/Dec. The usual seasonal slowdown in seaborne supply will provide some support over the coming months, but not enough to overcome persistent Chinese steel production restrictions and a flagging recovery ex-China. All this points to downward pressure on prices through to year-end.

Chinese steel cuts hit iron ore price
$100/t by year-end?
- Downside pressure on iron ore fines prices
- Lump and pellet - on the rise
A weak end to 2021 in prospect
- China - steel production cuts gather momentum
- What to expect from China in Q4?
- Chinese imports of iron ore - the peak has passed!
- India - impressive production; shrinking exports
- Surge in mine lease auction premiums in Odisha
Seaborne supply - the slow road to recovery
- Q4 outlook for Brazilian supply
- Q4 outlook for Australian supply
Inventories
- Under more favourable price and ample supply, we are likely to see a further build-up of iron ore port inventories in Q4
Freight
- N ormalisation expected following pronounced upward surge in the Capesize market