Commodity Market Report
Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Prices stabilised in October with the benchmark 62% index averaging $122/t, marginally above September's $120/t. But we believe this impasse will be short lived and forecast a downside break towards $100/t during Nov/Dec. The usual seasonal slowdown in seaborne supply will provide some support over the coming months, but not enough to overcome persistent Chinese steel production restrictions and a flagging recovery ex-China. All this points to downward pressure on prices through to year-end.
Table of contents
- Chinese steel cuts hit iron ore price
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$100/t by year-end?
- Downside pressure on iron ore fines prices
- Lump and pellet - on the rise
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A weak end to 2021 in prospect
- China - steel production cuts gather momentum
- What to expect from China in Q4?
- Chinese imports of iron ore - the peak has passed!
- India - impressive production; shrinking exports
- Surge in mine lease auction premiums in Odisha
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Seaborne supply - the slow road to recovery
- Q4 outlook for Brazilian supply
- Q4 outlook for Australian supply
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Inventories
- Under more favourable price and ample supply, we are likely to see a further build-up of iron ore port inventories in Q4
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Freight
- N ormalisation expected following pronounced upward surge in the Capesize market
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Key forecast dataIron ore pricesRaw material prices and hot metal spread
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Key quarterly forecast62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels62% and 65% Fe Forward CurvesPellet premiumLump premiumChinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)Daily production of CISA member companies
- 17 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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