Commodity Market Report

Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021

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29 October 2021

Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021

Report summary

Prices stabilised in October with the benchmark 62% index averaging $122/t, marginally above September's $120/t. But we believe this impasse will be short lived and forecast a downside break towards $100/t during Nov/Dec. The usual seasonal slowdown in seaborne supply will provide some support over the coming months, but not enough to overcome persistent Chinese steel production restrictions and a flagging recovery ex-China. All this points to downward pressure on prices through to year-end.

Table of contents

  • Chinese steel cuts hit iron ore price
    • Downside pressure on iron ore fines prices
    • Lump and pellet - on the rise
    • China - steel production cuts gather momentum
    • What to expect from China in Q4?
    • Chinese imports of iron ore - the peak has passed!
    • India - impressive production; shrinking exports
    • Surge in mine lease auction premiums in Odisha
    • Q4 outlook for Brazilian supply
    • Q4 outlook for Australian supply
    • Under more favourable price and ample supply, we are likely to see a further build-up of iron ore port inventories in Q4
    • N ormalisation expected following pronounced upward surge in the Capesize market

Tables and charts

This report includes 29 images and tables including:

  • Key forecast data
  • Iron ore prices
  • Raw material prices and hot metal spread
  • Key quarterly forecast
  • 62% Fe - Fibonacci Retracement Levels
  • 62% and 65% Fe Forward Curves
  • Pellet premium
  • Lump premium
  • Chinese BF and EAF utilisation rates (%)
  • Daily production of CISA member companies
  • Chinese iron ore imports
  • Chinese imports (by source)
  • Indian iron ore production
  • Indian iron ore exports
  • Brazilian iron ore exports
  • Brazilian iron ore exports to China
  • Australian iron ore exports
  • Australian iron ore exports: majors only
  • Chinese iron ore port inventories
  • Chinese total steel inventories
  • Capesize freight rates to China
  • Brazilian iron ore exports vs rainfall
  • Quarterly indicators: iron ore trade, crude steel and hot metal production (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Iron ore markets short-term outlook October 2021

    PDF 1.02 MB