Iron ore project review 2015

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Report summary

The past year has seen 18 projects representing US$29 billion of possible investment and 204Mtpa of capacity shelved as the sharp fall and bleak outlook for iron ore prices takes its toll. Developing projects over the medium term will be difficult. We expect production from existing mines and highly probable projects will be sufficient to meet demand through to 2025, but we have still identified more than 500Mtpa of proposed projects that we classify as probable or possible. Faced with an oversupplied market, we expect many of these projects will eventually be cancelled. Our current project pipeline covers 52 projects with a combined capacity 799Mtpa and capital expenditure of US$85 billion. Two-thirds of proposed projects - and almost all projects in our base case classified as highly probable - are located in Australia and Brazil, meaning the two dominant countries supplying the seaborne market are likely to further increase their market share.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Iron ore project review 2015

    PDF 1.36 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Project cancellations and deferrals
  • Project completions
  • Capital costs declining
  • Project pipeline dominated by Australia and Brazil
    • Highly probable
    • Probable
    • Possible

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:


  • Proposed capacity and capital expenditure
  • Long term supply/demand balance
  • Incentive price for selected projects
  • Project capital intensity
  • Capital intensity trend
  • Project capacity by status and country
  • Iron ore projects


  • Capital expenditure changes

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