Name: Iron ore time spreads support spot prices
Brand: Wood Mackenzie
SKU: 141648
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Author: Wood Mackenzie

Insight 01 April 2022

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            <h3 class="mega store_featured_content_extrabold store_font_black">Report summary</h3>
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The 62% Fe iron ore index has averaged $140/t so far this year. We have just raised our CY 2022 price forecast by 50% to $135/t CFR in our latest Global Iron Ore Strategic Planning Outlook – Q1 2022. In this note we examine iron ore time spreads – difference in iron ore price between two expiration dates – and how they compare to previous years. Time spreads are very narrow despite the iron ore price being elevated, which we believe signals support to price at around current levels, consistent with our supply/demand driven view that indicates another tight year for iron ore in 2022.</div>
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                    <h3 class="alpha push-half--bottom">Table of contents</h3>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Executive Summary
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<li class="list__item-toggle">
        <a href="#02876632-e956-4871-ac87-a0a11da0a5bd" class="js-toggle-local list__link-toggle dark-link font-semibold" role="button" aria-controls="02876632-e956-4871-ac87-a0a11da0a5bd" aria-expanded="false">
            Prices to remain elevated over next two quarters at least
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        <ul id="02876632-e956-4871-ac87-a0a11da0a5bd" class="panel-toggle push-half--left push-half--bottom">
                <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Prompt values of the forward curve are in contango – M+1 vs M+2 time spreads are negative
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    <li class="push-quarter--bottom">
        Q+1 vs Q+2 time spreads are trading close to zero
    </li>

</ul>
    </li>

<li class="list__item-toggle font-semibold">
        Divergence between flat price and time spreads
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        In summary:
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<p class="push-half--bottom">This report includes the following images and tables:</p>

<ul class="list list--bullets">
        <li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Sensitivity analysis on spot price vs time spreads – since January 2017</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">M+1 / M+2 time spread – since January 2021</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">M+1 / M+2 time spread – Seasonality</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Q+1 / Q+2 time spread – since January 2021</li><li class="list__item push-quarter--bottom">Q+1 / Q+2 time spread – Seasonality</li>
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<p class="push-half--bottom ">This report contains:</p>
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<p class="font-regular" >Iron ore time spreads support spot prices</p>
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