Steel: 4 things to look for in 2026

2025 uncovered an uncomfortable reality for steel markets – protection did not equal recovery. Demand weakened further in China, while The European Union (and UK)’s rebound never arrived. Tariffs, though widely expected, combined with China' undeterred oversupply pushed prices in opposite directions. As a result, global steel flows became more constrained, volatile and uneven. Looking ahead to 2026, conditions are likely to improve only marginally. Lower raw-material costs may offer some margin relief, but demand recovery remains fragile and policy-driven distortions are set to intensify. Green steel economics remain unfavourable pushing timelines out in the European Union and China. The year will test CBAM’s effectiveness and whether its complex mechanics add a new layer of trade friction. The full impact of Trump’s tariffs will become visible, while China’s policy stimulus and supply rationalisation efforts will remain central to the outlook.