Commodity Market Report
Steel markets - short-term outlook - February 2021
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*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
A bullish start to the Year of the Ox: • Chinese BOF’s didn’t switch off for the New Year holiday – boosting output growth • India recorded its sixth consecutive month of production growth – up 7% year-on-year • In the US and the EU HRC prices have doubled from 2020 lows But will the bulls or the bears end up on top? • The US is on the cusp of a demand bonanza – but could video games de-rail the steel boom? • Chinese infrastructure is growing, cars are selling and manufactures are exporting. But any decline in residential construction will swiftly erase those gains • EU production has had issues and trade is disrupted – boosting prices. But demand is weak, purchases are being delayed and capacity has returned – all bearish for price Read this month’s short-term outlook for an assessment of these risks.
Table of contents
- A bullish start to the Year of the Ox:
- Where are steel prices going to go next?
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China
- A bullish start to year of the Ox
- Steel output is just unstoppable, even for the holiday and poor profitability
- Steel demand release will be faster
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US
- What can go wrong on US’ steel bonanza ?
- 1) High prices to cause demand destruction
- 2) Lingering parts chain disruption to hamper auto production
- 3) last but not least, (still) COVID-19
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EU and UK
- Where will prices head next?
- The case for the bulls
- Production
- Trade
- The case for the bears
- Demand
- Short-term supply/demand balances
- H1 2021 downside price risk, 2022 upside demand potential
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Japan
- Mixed signals on recovery in Q1 2021
- Steel industry ‘cautious’ on revival
- Restructuring on agenda
- Going Green
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South Korea
- Steel recovery strengthens
- Scope of improvement for ‘diffident’ domestic consumption
- Return to ‘2019’ base in sight
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India
- Strong momentum continues for Indian steel production
- Government’s impetus on infrastructure, automotive and housing sector
- Iron ore
- Coal
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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AFSU (columns left axis) and growth (lines right axis)Key annual data
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Hot metal cost has reached the highest point in historyrebar margin of BOF has entered the negative territoryDaily crude steel output of CISA members steelmakersBF utilisation rate remained high during the CNY breakAutomotive key leading indicatorsWhere will prices head next?EU steel and scrap prices rallied hard in Q4 2020They may hold for H1 but we expect prices to trend downwards this yearEU key quarterly forecast
- 16 more item(s)...
What's included
This report contains:
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