Commodity Market Report

Steel short-term outlook July 2022

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29 July 2022

Steel short-term outlook July 2022

Report summary

Bears are overpowering bulls in the global steel market. The aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war led supply chain disruption, rising energy prices and cost inflation is weakening the global consumer and business sentiment. Chinese demand is faltering as sluggish property construction is shadowing the recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure. The dull consumer sentiment and China’s zero-tolerance policy on Covid poses a further downside risk to our forecast. The unending Russia-Ukraine war, the threat of energy supply disruption amid rising western sanctions on Russia makes our global outlook skewed towards upside. Steelmakers are enduring margin compression due to feeble consumption, rising raw material and energy costs and falling steel prices. Operating rates are inching lower with extended maintenance schedules and furnace idling. Read our short-term outlook for more in-depth analysis of regional demand-supply-price outlook.

Table of contents

  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Trade & Logistics
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Trade & Logistics
  • Prices
    • Macro uncertainty continues to undermine demand
    • Steelmakers forced to limit capacity on the back of low demand
  • Trade & Logistics
    • Falling prices puts pressure on producer profit margins
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Trade & Logistics
  • Prices
    • Growth to stutter in the second half
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Steel Costs
  • Iron Ore
  • Coal
  • Scrap

Tables and charts

This report includes 24 images and tables including:

  • Property indicators – yoy growth (%)
  • Apparent steel consumption (Mt)
  • Utilisation levels (%)
  • Trade balance (Mt)
  • Steel prices (RMB/t)
  • Steel margins (RMB/t)
  • US HRC-rebar price premia
  • Auto key leading indicators
  • Russia new car sales
  • Russia steel exports in 2021
  • Ukraine and Russia crude steel production
  • Ukraine steel exports in 2021
  • Apparent steel consumption (Mt)
  • Indian steel production and exports
  • Trade balance (Mt)
  • Steel price and spreads (INR/t)
  • Steel demand and export outlook
  • Automotive production growth back to green zone
  • EU Passenger car registrations
  • EU-27 + UK crude steel production
  • Global HRC prices
  • Northern Europe HRC vs Rebar
  • Steel demand and export outlook
  • Steel order book falling and inventory rising

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Steel short-term outlook July 2022

    PDF 1.32 MB