Steel short-term outlook May 2023

World steel production fell by 2% year-on-year in April, as production across all regions dropped, with the exception of India and South Korea. Delayed recovery in Chinese property markets has impacted global output growth. On the other hand, high inflation and borrowing costs dampened investments in mature markets. Sluggish demand caused raw material prices to plummet – impacting steel prices worldwide. With the onset of monsoons in most Asian countries, we do not expect any significant uptick in demand and production in the coming months – resulting in a subdued H1. We believe H2 will witness a healthy demand growth led by a much-awaited rebound in China and pre-election-led infrastructure growth in India. Any official announcement on the upper limit for this year’s Chinese steel production or any unforeseen development on the Russia-Ukraine war front may pose a downside risk to our forecast. Please read our short-term outlook for more details.