Steel short-term outlook October 2023

In September, global crude steel production decreased by 1.5% year on year. China was leading the fall as its steel demand remained sluggish and steel mills’ profitability continued to deteriorate. A RMB1tn special treasury bond posed upward risks to our 2024 forecast. India’s steel demand continued to be robust in September with a 17% year-on-year growth driven by pre-election construction activities. On the flip side, increasing interest rates, recessionary fears, and high debt levels have weakened business and consumer confidence in the West where steel demand and supply remained depressed. In the coming months, we expect that China will continue to shrink production to echo weakening demand in winter. Indian steel market will maintain the strong momentum in both supply and demand. Overshadowed by recessionary risks and high inflation, Europe and America will be lagging behind, with bumpy recovery prospects ahead.