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The return of Indian iron ore exports - blip or trend?

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Report summary

India has always been an opportunistic exporter of iron ore and has shown this once again with its swift return to the seaborne market in response to higher prices. Having been completely marginalised in 2014/15 Indian exports surged to over 20 million tonnes in 2016. Exports gathered momentum in Q1 17 and many commentators have suggested last year's total will be exceeded in 2017. We disagree. There's more to this story than meets the eye. India's low iron high alumina ore is being heavily discounted in the Chinese market to the point where realised prices are now at or below cash costs for many shippers. A trade that worked well at $85/t CFR (Q1 17 average price for 62% Fe fines) looks far less compelling at sub $60/t CFR (our forecast for H2 17). After stabilising around 20 million tonnes in 2017 we believe Indian iron ore exports will decline over the next two years and could disappear entirely by 2020.

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    The return of Indian iron ore exports - blip or trend?

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Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Images

  • Chart 1: Chinese imports from India – on the rise…but for how long?
  • Chart 2: Indian ore is being heavily discounted in the Chinese market.
  • Chart 5: The rise and fall (and rise again) of Indian exports.
  • Chart 6: Indian exports by port.
  • Chart 7: Discount for Indian 58% Fe versus Pilbara Blend fines.
  • Chart 8: Indian cost curve, non-captive mines, unadjusted for impurities.
  • Chart 3: Production by type.
  • Chart 4: Production by state.

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