Valuing ExxonMobil's Owowo discovery in deepwater Nigeria

Report summary

In October 2016, ExxonMobil announced that its Owowo deepwater discovery could hold 500 million to 1 billion barrels of recoverable resource.  Owowo is located near to the producing Usan field which is also operated by ExxonMobil. A tie-back to the Usan FPSO could allow early production, with a leased FPSO a possibility for a later phase.  The fiscal terms are similar to the 2005 PSC, the toughest of the deepwater era, while Nigeria's high costs are supported by local content. Does Owowo work with these disadvantages? Our Global Economic Model (GEM) shows that it needs to be at the upper end of the reserves scale to deliver attractive returns. However, every 1% of cost savings could realise 1.6% of extra value, so there is a clear incentive to reduce costs.  Report includes production, capital cost and operating cost profiles and cash flows. Metrics such as IRR, Breakeven Brent price and Government take are also provided.