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Assessing the oil market impact of the Middle East conflict – 8 key questions answered
*Please note that this report only includes an Excel data file if this is indicated in "What's included" below
Report summary
Conflict in the Middle East has pushed Brent to $100/bbl. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, oil production is being curtailed in the region, and energy infrastructure is being targeted by attacks. IEA members agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to help combat disruptions in the oil market. We answer 8 key questions on the current impact of the Middle East conflict on the oil market.
Table of contents
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Executive summary
- Q1. How much production is offline due to the conflict?
- Q2. What are the alternative evacuation routes?
- Q3. What impact could the IEA’s release of emergency stocks have?
- Q4. Can the US SPR drawdown at the announced rate?
- Q5. Can oil producers outside the Middle East help fill the short-term supply loss?
- Q6. What about sanctioned Russia barrels?
- Q7. What trends are we seeing in Middle East oil storage?
- Q8. What is the impact on global demand?
Tables and charts
This report includes the following images and tables:
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Infrastructure and tankers attacked as of 12 March 2026
What's included
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